Sports Gambling May Not Be a Jackpot for States

Some states were getting agen piala dunia ready to jump into sports gambling even before the U.S. Supreme Court legalized it last week, lining up legislation that would allow their states to cash in as quickly as possible on millions of dollars in tax revenue.

New Jersey, which won the high court case, and Delaware, with its racetracks, could be the first to benefit, potentially hosting sports gambling in a matter of weeks. Mississippi and Pennsylvania also expect to see legal betting soon.

But gambling experts warn that starry-eyed lawmakers might be overestimating their haul from legalized sports betting. agen piala dunia Differences in state tax structures, competition for a limited market of gamblers, the push for a federal framework and the continued allure of black-market betting all could cut into the hoped-for windfall.

A 2017 study by Oxford Economics, conducted for the American Gaming Association, estimated that sports betting could become a $41.2 billion industry — including “downstream impacts” as well as spending by bettors — and contribute about $3.4 billion in taxes to state and local governments.

That “may sound like big money — but it isn’t,” said Lucy Dadayan, a senior policy analyst at the Rockefeller Institute of Government.

The estimated $3.4 billion represents less than 0.3 percent of total state and local revenue, she said. It’s naive, she added, to think sports betting will be “a budget saver.” Historically, agen piala dunia revenue from expanding gambling deteriorates over time, she said. And much of the “new” gambling money that flows in is shifted from other forms of betting.

“Most certainly it will generate some revenues for the early-adopter states,” Dadayan said, “which will encourage other states to follow suit and legalize sports betting.”

That could give early states an advantage. And they’re anticipating wins.

“Great!” said West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice after the ruling. “I think it’s great because, to be perfectly honest, today we all know there’s a lot of illegal sports betting going on,” Justice, a Republican, told West Virginia reporters.

About 20 states have considered sports gambling legislation in 2018, but only West Virginia’s has passed. Mississippi and Pennsylvania enacted theirs last year.

Connecticut also now has an authorizing law in place, and New York is getting close, according to legalsportsreportm, agen piala dunia an industry website and newsletter tracking wagering laws. Oregon enacted legislation decades ago that could also be used to sanction sports gambling.

Dustin Gouker, the newsletter’s editor, said revenue “is a hard thing to forecast.” He said even if states legalize sports betting, the black market — with estimated wagers between $50 billion and $100 billion a year — is not going to disappear.

“Legal books are going to do well because they are legal and trustworthy,” he said. “But offshore books offer anonymity and are tax free,” he said, referring to illegal books based in other countries.